{"id":5265,"date":"2025-09-22T13:33:49","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T11:33:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mojesebepoznani.cz\/?p=5265"},"modified":"2025-09-22T13:33:51","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T11:33:51","slug":"demograficka-bilance-a-vyhled-svetove-populace-2005-2044","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/demograficka-bilance-a-vyhled-svetove-populace-2005-2044\/","title":{"rendered":"Demografick\u00e1 bilance a v\u00fdhled sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace (2005\u20132044)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">Sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace pro\u0161la za posledn\u00edch dvacet let (2005\u20132024) v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami. Tempo r\u016fstu se zpomalilo, p\u0159esto lidstvo p\u0159ibylo o v\u00edce ne\u017e jednu a p\u016fl miliardy obyvatel. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f OSN (World Population Prospects 2024) a anal\u00fdz Our World in Data p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00edme podrobn\u00fd p\u0159ehled trend\u016f posledn\u00edch dvou dek\u00e1d a odborn\u00fd v\u00fdhled na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 20 let (2025\u20132044).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>\u201eP\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00ed nen\u00ed jen o po\u010dtu lid\u00ed, ale o zp\u016fsobu, jak\u00fdm \u017eijeme.\u201c<\/p><cite>Martin Luther King Jr.<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"related-sec related-1 is-width-right is-style-boxed\">\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"inner\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"block-h heading-layout-1\"><div class=\"heading-inner\"><h4 class=\"heading-title none-toc\"><span>V\u00edce \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f<\/span><\/h4><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t<div class=\"block-inner\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-wrap p-small p-list-small-2\" data-pid=\"3391\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"feat-holder\">\t\t<div class=\"p-featured ratio-v1\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"p-flink\" href=\"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/slunecni-erupce-a-jejich-vliv-na-psychiku-mytus-nebo-realita\/\" title=\"Slune\u010dn\u00ed erupce a jejich vliv na psychiku: M\u00fdtus, nebo realita?\">\r\n\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-2025-03-06T153019.554-150x150.png\" class=\"featured-img wp-post-image\" alt=\"Slune\u010dn\u00ed erupce a jejich vliv na psychiku: M\u00fdtus, nebo realita?\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-content\">\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"entry-title h5\">\t\t<a class=\"p-url\" href=\"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/slunecni-erupce-a-jejich-vliv-na-psychiku-mytus-nebo-realita\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\r\n\t\tSlune\u010dn\u00ed erupce a jejich vliv na psychiku: M\u00fdtus, nebo realita?\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-wrap p-list-inline\" data-pid=\"5728\">\r\n\t\t<div class=\"entry-title h6\"><i class=\"rbi rbi-plus\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t<a class=\"p-url\" href=\"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/vyvazene-o-epsteinovo-spisech-co-zaznelo-v-debate-noglobe-a-suenee\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\r\n\t\tVyv\u00e1\u017een\u011b o Epsteinovo spisech: Co zazn\u011blo v debat\u011b Noglobe a Suene\u00e9\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-wrap p-list-inline\" data-pid=\"4499\">\r\n\t\t<div class=\"entry-title h6\"><i class=\"rbi rbi-plus\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t<a class=\"p-url\" href=\"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/kulhavka-a-slintavka-sto-let-boje-s-neviditelnym-nepritelem-dobytka\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\r\n\t\tKulhavka a slintavka: Sto let boje s neviditeln\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00edtelem dobytka\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-wrap p-list-inline\" data-pid=\"3394\">\r\n\t\t<div class=\"entry-title h6\"><i class=\"rbi rbi-plus\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t<a class=\"p-url\" href=\"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/schumannova-rezonance-srdecni-tep-planety-a-jeji-vliv-na-cloveka\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\r\n\t\tSchumannova rezonance: Srde\u010dn\u00ed tep planety a jej\u00ed vliv na \u010dlov\u011bka\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-wrap p-list-inline\" data-pid=\"4472\">\r\n\t\t<div class=\"entry-title h6\"><i class=\"rbi rbi-plus\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t<a class=\"p-url\" href=\"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/pro-anicku-slovackovou\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\r\n\t\tPro Ani\u010dku Slov\u00e1\u010dkovou\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Minul\u00fdch 20 let (2005\u20132024): Narozen\u00ed, \u00famrt\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Narozen\u00ed:<\/strong> P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b <strong>2,7 miliardy<\/strong> d\u011bt\u00ed se narodilo po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b za posledn\u00edch 20 let. Ro\u010dn\u00ed po\u010det narozen\u00ed se pohyboval kolem 130 milion\u016f.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u00damrt\u00ed:<\/strong> B\u011bhem stejn\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed zem\u0159elo <strong>~1,2 miliardy<\/strong> lid\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ro\u010dn\u00ed po\u010dty se zv\u00fd\u0161ily zhruba z 53 milion\u016f v roce 2005 na v\u00edce ne\u017e 62 milion\u016f v roce 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>P\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek:<\/strong> \u010cist\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace \u010dinil <strong>~1,5 miliardy<\/strong> obyvatel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stavy populace:<\/strong> V roce 2005 \u017eilo na Zemi <strong>6,55 miliardy<\/strong>, v roce 2024 u\u017e <strong>8,10 miliardy<\/strong> lid\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Region\u00e1ln\u00ed trendy (2005\u20132024)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Subsaharsk\u00e1 Afrika:<\/strong> Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstky. Vysok\u00e1 porodnost a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00famrtnost vedly k prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu populace.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ji\u017en\u00ed Asie:<\/strong> V\u00fdznamn\u00fd, ale postupn\u011b zpomaluj\u00edc\u00ed r\u016fst. Indie a sousedn\u00ed st\u00e1ty p\u0159isp\u011bly z\u00e1sadn\u011b k celkov\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstku.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Severn\u00ed Afrika a Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie:<\/strong> Stabiln\u00ed r\u016fst d\u00edky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed porodnosti a prodlu\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed se d\u00e9lce \u017eivota.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Latinsk\u00e1 Amerika:<\/strong> R\u016fst zpomalil, plodnost se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1hradn\u00ed \u00farovni.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Evropa:<\/strong> Stagnace a m\u00edsty pokles populace; n\u00edzk\u00e1 porodnost a st\u00e1rnut\u00ed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>V\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie (\u010c\u00edna, Japonsko, Korea):<\/strong> Po obdob\u00ed stagnace nast\u00e1v\u00e1 pokles obyvatel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Severn\u00ed Amerika a Oce\u00e1nie:<\/strong> M\u00edrn\u00fd r\u016fst, zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky migraci.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00damrtnost podle region\u016f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Asie:<\/strong> Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed absolutn\u00ed po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed, dan\u00fd velikost\u00ed populace.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Evropa a Amerikas:<\/strong> Vysok\u00e9 po\u010dty \u00famrt\u00ed vlivem st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Afrika:<\/strong> Rychle rostouc\u00ed absolutn\u00ed po\u010dty \u00famrt\u00ed, ale st\u00e1le pod \u00farovn\u00ed Asie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">V\u00fdhled 2025\u20132044<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Podle OSN a Our World in Data poroste populace i v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvou dek\u00e1d\u00e1ch, ale tempo se d\u00e1le zpomal\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Glob\u00e1ln\u011b:<\/strong> Ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 8,2 miliardy (2024) se sv\u011bt dostane k ~<strong>9,2\u20139,3 miliardy v roce 2044<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ro\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek:<\/strong> Poklesne z dne\u0161n\u00edch ~70 milion\u016f k ~50\u201360 milion\u016fm ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Narozen\u00ed vs. \u00famrt\u00ed:<\/strong> Ro\u010dn\u00ed po\u010det narozen\u00ed (~120\u2013130 mil.) z\u016fstane nad \u00famrt\u00edmi, kter\u00e1 budou r\u016fst (ze ~62 mil. dnes k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m v dal\u0161\u00edch dek\u00e1d\u00e1ch).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">R\u016fst st\u00e1le pokra\u010duje, ale zpomaluje<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>V letech 1950\u20131990 sv\u011bt rostl rychle: p\u0159ib\u00fdvalo v\u00edce ne\u017e <strong>2 % ro\u010dn\u011b<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dnes je tempo r\u016fstu <strong>pod 1 % ro\u010dn\u011b<\/strong> a d\u00e1l kles\u00e1. Do poloviny stolet\u00ed m\u00e1 b\u00fdt kolem <strong>0,4 %<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee <strong>vrchol sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace nastane kolem 2080s<\/strong> (~10,3 mld.) a pak p\u0159ijde pokles.<br>\u2192 To je jin\u00fd obraz, ne\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00ed varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed nekone\u010dn\u00fdm r\u016fstem.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 trendy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>St\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace:<\/strong> Po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed poroste, zejm\u00e9na v Asii a Evrop\u011b.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Klesaj\u00edc\u00ed fertilita:<\/strong> Celosv\u011btov\u00e1 plodnost se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1hradn\u00ed \u00farovni (~2,1 d\u00edt\u011bte na \u017eenu) a\u017e sm\u011brem k polovin\u011b stolet\u00ed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Miln\u00edky:<\/strong> 2030 ~8,5 mld.; 2044 ~9,2 mld.; 2050 ~9,6\u20139,7 mld. Vrchol kolem 2080s ~10,3 mld.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>T\u011b\u017ei\u0161t\u011b r\u016fstu:<\/strong> drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina <strong>\u010dist\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstku<\/strong> p\u0159ipadne na <strong>Afriku (hlavn\u011b subsaharskou)<\/strong>, se znateln\u00fdm, ale klesaj\u00edc\u00edm pod\u00edlem <strong>Ji\u017en\u00ed Asie<\/strong>. Evropa a \u010d\u00e1st V\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie budou <strong>ztr\u00e1cet obyvatelstvo<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>St\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace:<\/strong> prudce se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed <strong>po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed v absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech<\/strong> (v\u00edc senior\u016f), tak\u017ee <strong>\u010dist\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek<\/strong> bude rok od roku men\u0161\u00ed \u2013 z dne\u0161n\u00edch ~70 mil.\/rok sm\u011brem k ~50\u201360 mil.\/rok do za\u010d\u00e1tku 40. let.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Co \u010dekat glob\u00e1ln\u011b (2025\u20132044)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Po\u010det obyvatel poroste, ale pomaleji.<\/strong> Z ~8,2 mld. v roce 2024 se sv\u011bt posune k ~<strong>9,2\u20139,3 mld. kolem roku 2044<\/strong>; tempo r\u016fstu bude d\u00e1l klesat. OSN uv\u00e1d\u00ed ~8,5 mld. v 2030 a ~9,6 mld. v 2050; rok 2044 t\u00edm p\u00e1dem vych\u00e1z\u00ed kolem ~9,2+.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ro\u010dn\u00ed \u010dist\u00fd p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek klesne<\/strong> zhruba ze ~<strong>70 mil.<\/strong> (2024) sm\u011brem k <strong>~50\u201360 mil.<\/strong> ro\u010dn\u011b ve 30. letech a na p\u0159elomu 30.\/40. let; do 2050 OSN po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 cca <strong>~40 mil. ro\u010dn\u011b<\/strong>. D\u016fvod: m\u00edrn\u011b klesaj\u00edc\u00ed porodnost a rychle rostouc\u00ed po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed ve st\u00e1rnouc\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Narozen\u00ed vs. \u00famrt\u00ed:<\/strong> ro\u010dn\u00ed <strong>narozen\u00ed<\/strong> z\u016fstanou vysoko (~120\u2013130 mil.), s pozvoln\u00fdm poklesem; <strong>\u00famrt\u00ed<\/strong> porostou z ~62 mil. (2024) d\u00e1l vzh\u016fru. P\u0159ek\u0159\u00ed\u017een\u00ed (\u00famrt\u00ed > narozen\u00ed) OSN ne\u010dek\u00e1 v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 20 letech, sp\u00ed\u0161 a\u017e ve druh\u00e9 p\u016flce stolet\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kde se bude populace m\u011bnit nejv\u00edc<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Subsaharsk\u00e1 Afrika \u2013 hlavn\u00ed motor r\u016fstu.<\/strong> Podle OSN\/OWID p\u0159ipadne <strong>v\u00edc ne\u017e polovina<\/strong> celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstku do roku 2050 pr\u00e1v\u011b sem; do roku 2044 tedy ponese v\u011bt\u0161inu glob\u00e1ln\u00edho n\u00e1r\u016fstu. Populace regionu do 2050 vzroste zhruba o <strong>dv\u011b t\u0159etiny<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ji\u017en\u00ed Asie \u2013 st\u00e1le v\u00fdznamn\u00fd, ale sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek.<\/strong> R\u016fst bude zpomalovat s t\u00edm, jak se plodnost bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1hradn\u00ed \u00farovni; absolutn\u00ed po\u010dty v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed vysok\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Severn\u00ed Afrika &amp; Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie \u2013 st\u0159edn\u00ed r\u016fst.<\/strong> Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst, ale ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v subsaharsk\u00e9 Africe; struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed st\u00e1rnut\u00ed teprve postupn\u011b p\u0159ibr\u017e\u010fuje tempo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Latinsk\u00e1 Amerika a Karibik \u2013 plo\u0161n\u00e9 zvoln\u011bn\u00ed.<\/strong> V\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed u\u017e m\u00e1 plodnost pobl\u00ed\u017e \u010di pod n\u00e1hradou; r\u016fst bude n\u00edzk\u00fd. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Evropa \u2013 \u00fabytek \/ stagnace.<\/strong> N\u00edzk\u00e1 plodnost a st\u00e1rnut\u00ed povedou v souhrnu k <strong>poklesu<\/strong> nebo jen minim\u00e1ln\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m; \u010dist\u00e9 migra\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstky mohou \u00fabytky jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b tlumit. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Severn\u00ed Amerika \u2013 m\u00edrn\u00fd r\u016fst.<\/strong> Hlavn\u011b d\u00edky <strong>migraci<\/strong>; p\u0159irozen\u00fd p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek je slab\u00fd. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Oce\u00e1nie \u2013 mal\u00fd, stabiln\u00ed r\u016fst.<\/strong> Kombinace vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed plodnosti v \u010d\u00e1sti regionu a migrace. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stru\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla do souvislost\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Miln\u00edk 2030:<\/strong> ~<strong>8,5 mld.<\/strong> (UN WPP 2024). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Miln\u00edk 2050:<\/strong> ~<strong>9,6\u20139,7 mld.<\/strong> (st\u0159edn\u00ed varianta), vrchol kolem <strong>2084\u2013mid-2080s<\/strong> ~<strong>10,3 mld.<\/strong> a pot\u00e9 pozvoln\u00fd pokles. Tedy b\u011bhem 2025\u20132044 jsme po\u0159\u00e1d v \u201erostouc\u00ed, ale brzd\u00edc\u00ed\u201c f\u00e1zi. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fertilita:<\/strong> glob\u00e1ln\u00ed TFR kles\u00e1 a podle OSN by se m\u011bla dostat <strong>k n\u00e1hradn\u00ed \u00farovni ~2,1<\/strong> a\u017e sm\u011brem k 2050; to d\u00e1le brzd\u00ed r\u016fst v Asii\/Latinsk\u00e9 Americe, zat\u00edmco Afrika z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Co z toho plyne (2025\u20132044)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>T\u011b\u017ei\u0161t\u011b r\u016fstu:<\/strong> drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina <strong>\u010dist\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstku<\/strong> p\u0159ipadne na <strong>Afriku (hlavn\u011b subsaharskou)<\/strong>, se znateln\u00fdm, ale klesaj\u00edc\u00edm pod\u00edlem <strong>Ji\u017en\u00ed Asie<\/strong>. Evropa a \u010d\u00e1st V\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie budou <strong>ztr\u00e1cet obyvatelstvo<\/strong>. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>St\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace:<\/strong> prudce se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed <strong>po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed v absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech<\/strong> (v\u00edc senior\u016f), tak\u017ee <strong>\u010dist\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek<\/strong> bude rok od roku men\u0161\u00ed \u2013 z dne\u0161n\u00edch ~70 mil.\/rok sm\u011brem k ~50\u201360 mil.\/rok do za\u010d\u00e1tku 40. let. <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/births-and-deaths?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lidstvo vstupuje do obdob\u00ed zpomaluj\u00edc\u00edho r\u016fstu, kdy p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1 obyvatel, ale s men\u0161\u00ed dynamikou ne\u017e v minulosti. T\u011b\u017ei\u0161t\u011b r\u016fstu se p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do Afriky, zat\u00edmco Evropa a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie budou \u010delit \u00fabytku a st\u00e1rnut\u00ed. Tyto trendy budou m\u00edt z\u00e1sadn\u00ed dopady na ekonomiku, migraci, zdravotnictv\u00ed i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdhled OSN ukazuje, \u017ee lidstvo <strong>dos\u00e1hne maxima b\u011bhem tohoto stolet\u00ed a pak za\u010dne klesat<\/strong>. Tvrzen\u00ed o \u201ep\u0159elidn\u011bn\u00ed\u201c jako neomezen\u00e9m r\u016fstu nejsou s dostupn\u00fdmi daty v souladu. Re\u00e1ln\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem je sp\u00ed\u0161 <strong>nerovnom\u011brn\u00fd region\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst<\/strong> a <strong>dopady spot\u0159ebn\u00edho chov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong> na ekosyst\u00e9my a klima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Zdroje a podklady<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>UN DESA \u2013 World Population Prospects 2024<\/strong> (port\u00e1l, souhrn a metodika). <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Populace<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Our World in Data \u2013 Population by world region (s projekcemi WPP 2024)<\/strong> a <strong>How many people are born\/die each year?<\/strong> (projekce porod\u016f\/\u00famrt\u00ed). <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/population-regions-with-projections\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/population-regions-with-projections\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Our World in Data<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>INED \u2013 Shrnut\u00ed k WPP 2024 (region\u00e1ln\u00ed trendy, vrchol 2080s).<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ined.fr\/en\/everything_about_population\/demographic-facts-sheets\/focus-on\/2024-les-nations-unies-publient-de-nouvelles-projections-de-population-mondiale\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Ined<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Population Institute (2025) \u2013 Beyond 8 Billion<\/strong> (tempo r\u016fstu ~70 \u2192 ~40 mil.\/rok do 2050). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.populationinstitute.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/8-billion-population-projections.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Population Institute<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Newsweek \u2013 rekapitulace pod\u00edlu subsaharsk\u00e9 Afriky na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm r\u016fstu do 2050<\/strong> (odkazuje na WPP 2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/map-global-population-increase-sub-saharan-africa-population-birth-rate-fertility-rate-2103515?\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Newsweek<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sv\u011btov\u00e1 populace pro\u0161la za posledn\u00edch dvacet let (2005\u20132024) v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami. Tempo r\u016fstu se zpomalilo, p\u0159esto lidstvo p\u0159ibylo o v\u00edce ne\u017e jednu a p\u016fl miliardy obyvatel. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f OSN (World Population Prospects 2024) a anal\u00fdz Our World in Data p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00edme podrobn\u00fd p\u0159ehled trend\u016f posledn\u00edch dvou dek\u00e1d a odborn\u00fd v\u00fdhled na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 20 let (2025\u20132044). [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":5268,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[339],"class_list":["post-5265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-aktuality-ze-sveta-sebepoznani","tag-statistika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5265"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5265\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5294,"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5265\/revisions\/5294"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d.r4.wbsprt.com\/mojesebepoznani.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}